• Asteroid
  • Fukushima
  • Katrina
  • Tsunami
Dr. B. John Garrick

Dr. B. John Garrick


Key Reference

Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks - B. John Garrick

Founder's Vision

My vision is a more orderly and scientific basis for taking actions to protect society and the environment from rare but catastrophic events through the quantification and importance ranking of such risks in the most vulnerable regions of the U.S.  The hope is that a more-informed public of the risk of catastrophic events will lead to better societal decisions on how to mitigate such events, reduce their likelihood of occurrence, or limit their consequences.  The events of interest are those that can lead to major fatalities, regional devastation, or possibly even species extinction.  Two important incentives for addressing catastrophic events are, (1) they tend to be ignored as they fall outside of most human experiences and thus suffer in attention from being "out of sight and out of mind," and (2) because of their low frequency of occurrence, especially compared to "terms of office" of political leaders, there lacks motivation for decision makers to address them.

Quantitative Risk Assessment

Quantitative risk assessment is a process of probabilistic evidential and inferential analysis of the response of events, systems, or activities to different challenges based on the fundamental rules of logic and plausible reasoning. It is a thought process for answering three basic questions about events, systems, or activities of what can go wrong, what is the likelihood if it does go wrong, and what are the consequences.

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